Climate Change may bring migrants to Minnesota

It’s feasible to imagine new-to-moving families planning fastidiously with their realtor about what kind of house they want, what kind of renovations they’re willing to do, and everything in between. They might want a big yard, a screened-in porch, gardening space, an open concept living room, kitchen, and dining room — but these hopes and dreams are superficial at best.

For as any experienced persons who have moved previously, and as any good realtor knows, the three primary considerations in the event of choosing a house are as follows: Location. Location. Location. Et cetera — Because where exactly a person moves determines their livelihoods. Their job. Their neighbors, the atmosphere of the community, the safety of the neighborhood. And if the price is low? That’s just a bonus. According to U-Haul (yes, this is real), after their annual analysis of the “Top Growth States” based on how many U-Haul trucks were used to move on one-way trips, they discovered that Texas, for the third year in a row, has been the top destination for movers. Florida was second, North Carolina was third, and Minnesota was 20th. 

But Minnesota, albeit without sunny disposition or oceansides, won’t be 20th for long.

For climate change is a slithery beast lurking under rising tides. As sea levels advance across retreating shorelines, as islands slowly succumb to the greedy onslaught of the ocean, as flooding pursues coastal and lakeside sides, as the ensuing repercussions of humanity’s transgressions against the earth stack up — people will find themselves in need of an escape. Places will become unlivable. So, relocation will be the designated coping mechanism. And what happens to be one of the forecasted prime regions in the U.S. to live? That’s right. Minnesota. Specifically, the Twin Cities and Duluth.

As the weather becomes warmer and increasingly moderate in the coming years, Minnesota and the Midwest will be some of the safest locations for relocating families, as the area is not as susceptible to extreme weather conditions, has lots of freshwater, and does not have as many hilly or mountainous areas. Suddenly, Minnesota will become much more crowded than anyone ever expected. The Twin Cities may very well turn into a mega, metropolis, concrete jungle. The question stands: Is Minnesota ready for it?

Abrahm Lustgarten’s book On The Move is an analysis on the U.S.’s impending population shift and migration, published in 2024.

“Of all the geographic threats from climate change, the most explicitly disruptive is the methodically slow march of rising sea levels as the oceans warm and expand, and the planet’s great ice sheets melt and flow into them. There is no moderate response or varying interpretations about acceptable risk on low-lying coasts,” Lustgarten wrote. “The waves can’t be extinguished, tidal surges can’t be air-conditioned. People will eventually be forced to leave. You simply can’t survive underwater.” 

An example? California, where citizens are increasingly plagued by heavy flooding, landslides, mudslides, and incessant rain. For example, in early February this year, the city of Los Angeles experienced massive amounts of rain, causing serious flooding and mudslides. So much so that in one day, according to the New York Times, it was forecasted to rain more in one day than what Los Angeles usually gets in a full year. 

This flood type is coined to be an “Atmospheric river”, a catastrophic event that can damage homes and livelihoods by its might. In an explanation from the New York Times, atmospheric rivers manifest in the tropics, and form into rain or snow upon encountering a mountain range, such as the Sierra Nevada. Thus causing much environmental disaster in places like California, a state more susceptible to “wet and intense” weather due to warmer air, which has a larger capacity for retaining moisture. And the soil can only retain so much water, which means potential for mudslides and falling trees as the earth becomes looser. Raging winds can rip buildings, trees, and power lines this way and that. This is the kind of winter that afflicts California and warm weather coastal states and cities like Boston, Miami, New York, etc. 

And when the weather becomes too much, where will these capsized Americans flee? Safer, further inground places: places like the Midwest. But Minnesota, and the rest of the Midwest, is not exempt from climate change, however dampered. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR)  reported increased flooding, temperature, and much warmer winters than ever before, such as this past winter. The DNR reported that “The Twin Cities broke its record for number of 50 F days for the season by early February, racking up 18 by the end of the month.” Additionally, it recorded that “most areas in the state had received less than 50% of their normal snowfall through the end of February”. 

In On The Move, Lustgarten describes Minnesota’s “mega-rain events, storms that drop more than six inches of water over one thousand square miles in less than a day”. What’s concerning is that usually, according to scientists, these mega-rains have a one in one thousand chance of occurring per year. But there were two in 2016. And there have been eleven, Lustgarten says, since 2000. Like a flash flood from the sky — concentrated in a mere few hours. 

And lakes like Lake Michigan are rising even faster than the seas. According to WPR.org (Wisconsin Public Radio), Lake Michigan has risen a total of three feet in the past decade or so. 

Is Minnesota ready for it? Are the influx of people that will be coming within the next few years ready for it? Are citizens of the U.S.A. ready for – literally – an upheaval of what has been the United States for years?

And that’s just scratching the surface.